Concept
Probabilistic Thinking
2 books in the library reach for this idea - each in its own way. When independent authors converge on one concept, it usually deserves attention.
Superforecasting
How this book uses it: Assigning precise probabilities (not vague terms like "likely") and updating them. Start using numbers today.
The Great Mental Models Volume 1
How this book uses it: Estimate likelihoods rather than seeking certainty. The world is probabilistic; your thinking should match.
